Hizbullah Shoukat

Download Market Snaphot here. Last Week’s Summary: ▪ S&P 500 Index fell 0.24% ▪ International Equities fell 0.74% ▪ Emerging Markets fell 0.86% ▪ U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 3.46% ▪ CPI fell to 4.9%; Core CPI fell to 5.5% ▪ Initial Jobless Claims rose to 264k ▪ PPI fell to 2.3%; Core PPI […]

Security Brokers and Dealers; Margin Accounts at Brokers and Dealers; Asset, Level Entering the danger zone for margin debt. Historically, when margin debt has reached these levels, a subsequent stock market correction occurred. Margin debt could be extended from here, but it looks close to maxing out.

Here are some of the highlights of credit growth in 2020: During the first nine months of 2020, Total Credit in the US expanded by $6.4 trillion. The previous full-year record for Credit Growth was $5 trillion in 2007. Total Credit now amounts to $82 Trillion. It has increased 82 times in just 54 years.

E-Commerce Bubble Compared to Other Bubbles: Chart The e-commerce bubble will likely continue to grow. However, it will reach a point in which it is unable to sustain the current growth rate of earnings and capital inflows, resulting in a significant short-term drawdown followed by sideways growth until e-commerce stock prices fully are reset. Source:

2-Year Yield Curve In Historically Vulnerable Territory The 2-year yield curve continues to steepen. Historically, over the last twenty years, as the yield curve steepened, this coincided with a drop in equities. The below chart overlays the 2-year yield curve with the S&P 500. We are around the point in which equities began a multi-year

U.S. Equity Evaluations Continue To Climb To Historic Highs The S&P Price to Earnings Ratio is currently at historic highs, suggesting extremely rich valuations and a possibility of an asset pricing reset in the coming years. P/E ratios are likely to follow historic precedent and revert to their historical average of 15x earnings. If so,

Global Central Banks Continue to Flood the Markets with Liquidity Collectively, the assets of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan rose from $7.2 trillion in March to a record $21.8 trillion in November. All three are also pushing their country’s fiscal policymakers for additional stimulus. The Fed’s Reserve

In the 21st Century, Credit Growth = Economic Growth In the United States, when Total Credit grows by less than 2% (adjusted for inflation), the country goes into recession. That happened nine times between 1952 and 2009. Therefore, it is very important to monitor and forecast Credit Growth. During the first quarter of this year,

Fed leaves rates unchanged. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision announced Wednesday that came along with a tepid outlook on the coronavirus-plagued economy. In a move widely expected, the central bank kept its benchmark overnight lending rate anchored near zero, where it has been since March 15 in the early days

Gold sets record high Gold prices have soared to a record high, with investors rushing to find safe places to park their money as concerns grow about a resurgence in the coronavirus and the impact that could have on the global economy. Gold hit $1,944 per ounce earlier on Monday, beating its previous record of