Hizbullah Shoukat

2-Year Yield Curve In Historically Vulnerable Territory The 2-year yield curve continues to steepen. Historically, over the last twenty years, as the yield curve steepened, this coincided with a drop in equities. The below chart overlays the 2-year yield curve with the S&P 500. We are around the point in which equities began a multi-year […]

U.S. Equity Evaluations Continue To Climb To Historic Highs The S&P Price to Earnings Ratio is currently at historic highs, suggesting extremely rich valuations and a possibility of an asset pricing reset in the coming years. P/E ratios are likely to follow historic precedent and revert to their historical average of 15x earnings. If so,

Global Central Banks Continue to Flood the Markets with Liquidity Collectively, the assets of the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan rose from $7.2 trillion in March to a record $21.8 trillion in November. All three are also pushing their country’s fiscal policymakers for additional stimulus. The Fed’s Reserve

In the 21st Century, Credit Growth = Economic Growth In the United States, when Total Credit grows by less than 2% (adjusted for inflation), the country goes into recession. That happened nine times between 1952 and 2009. Therefore, it is very important to monitor and forecast Credit Growth. During the first quarter of this year,

Fed leaves rates unchanged. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a decision announced Wednesday that came along with a tepid outlook on the coronavirus-plagued economy. In a move widely expected, the central bank kept its benchmark overnight lending rate anchored near zero, where it has been since March 15 in the early days

Gold sets record high Gold prices have soared to a record high, with investors rushing to find safe places to park their money as concerns grow about a resurgence in the coronavirus and the impact that could have on the global economy. Gold hit $1,944 per ounce earlier on Monday, beating its previous record of

According to the U.S. Debt Clock, the federal debt has now grown to more than $26 trillion. As US debt increases, the US Dollar continues to slide, down -3.17 YTD.