Market Summary – December 4, 2023

Last Week’s Summary

  • S&P 500 Index rose 0.83%
  • International Equities rose 0.49%
  • Emerging Markets rose 0.20%
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield fell to 4.19%
  • GDP rose to 5.2%
  • Initial Jobless Claims rose to 218k
  • Personal Income fell to 0.2%
  • Personal Spending fell to 0.2%
  • PCE Core fell to 3.5%

What to Watch for This Week

  • M, 12/4/23 Factory Orders, Durable Goods Orders
  • T, 12/5/23 JOLTS Job Openings
  • W, 12/6/23 MBA Mortgage Apps, ADP Employment Change, Trade Balance
  • Th, 12/7/23 Initial Jobless Claims
  • F, 12/8/23 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, U. of Mich. Sentiment, U. of Mich. 1-Year Inflation

Weekly Market Recap

On Friday, the S&P 500 Index demonstrated a robust rally, securing gains for the fifth straight week and achieving its highest close since March 2022. November proved well for the index, closing with an impressive 8.92% gain, marking one of its most substantial monthly returns in the past five decades.

The surge in U.S. stocks and bonds on Friday was fueled by Powell’s assertion that current policies are firmly in restrictive territory, coupled with a readiness to implement further hikes if deemed necessary. Powell emphasized that policymakers are not in a rush to ease interest rates.

Consequently, Two-Year Treasuries Yields descended to their lowest point since June, while traders adjusted their expectations, projecting over a full point of easing by December 2024. Earlier in the week, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, experienced a decline, aligning with economists’ predictions and indicating an alleviation of price pressures.

Warnings came from top retailers suggesting a shift in American households’ behavior. After a year of defying expectations and indulging in summer spending, households appear to be exercising restraint. Looking ahead, this week will see traders closely monitoring indicators of the labor market, particularly with the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls and unemployment data.

On a different note, oil extended its decline, concluding a sixth consecutive weekly drop, as the OPEC+ output cuts announced last week failed to dispel concerns about an oversupply in the global market.

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