Market Summary – January 29, 2024

Last Week’s Summary

  • S&P 500 Index rose 1.07%
  • International Equities rose 1.80%
  • Emerging Markets rose 1.47%
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 4.13%
  • Initial Jobless Claims rose to 214k
  • GDP fell to 3.3%
  • PCE stayed at 2.6%; Core fell to 2.9%

What to Watch for This Week

  • M, 1/29/24 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity
  • T, 1/30/24 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence
  • W, 1/31/24 FOMC Rate Decision, MBA Mortgage Applications
  • Th, 2/1/24 Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacturing
  • F, 2/2/24 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, U. of Mich. Sentiment

Weekly Market Recap

The S&P 500 exhibited fluctuation but managed to secure a third consecutive weekly gain. Conversely, the Nasdaq 100 lagged behind due to disappointing forecasts from Intel Corp. and KLA Corp., which cast a shadow on the performance of chipmakers.

Wall Street found itself navigating through mixed economic data, leading to a decline in Treasuries as traders speculated on the Federal Reserve’s inclination to convey patience before considering interest-rate cuts later in the year. Bond losses, particularly in shorter maturities, ensued as personal spending surpassed estimates, despite the Fed’s preferred indicator of underlying inflation slowing to an almost Three-Year low.

Notably, Two-Year U.S. Yields reached over 4.35%. Investors, though not abandoning their expectations for an interest-rate cut in the first quarter, continued to fully factor in a potential Fed move in May. As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for their initial meeting of the year, market participants are eager to discern how these dynamics will influence the balance of risks.

In addition to the FOMC Meeting, attention will be focused on the upcoming release of labor-market figures on Friday, offering new insights into the job market. The week ahead is also poised to unveil financial results from key players, such as Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., and Alphabet Inc., all of which have played a pivotal role in propelling the resurgence of U.S. equities since the October 2022 low.

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