Market Summary – July 1, 2024

Last Week’s Summary

  • S&P 500 Index fell 0.06%
  • International Equities rose 0.38%
  • Emerging Markets rose 0.04%
  • U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield rose to 4.39%
  • PCE fell to 2.6%; Core PCE fell to 2.6%
  • U. of Mich. Sentiment rose to 68.2

What to Watch for This Week

  • M, 7/1/24 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
  • T, 7/2/24 JOLTS Job Openings
  • W, 7/3/24 ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Services Index, Trade Balance
  • F, 7/5/24 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Weekly Market Recap

The S&P 500 entered Q3 with a 15.3% increase year-to-date, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ rose 18.6% and the Dow Jones saw a more modest gain of 4.8%. As of the end of 2023, the top seven names in the S&P 500 have driven two-thirds of its returns, with NVIDIA alone contributing 30%.

Treasuries have largely underperformed compared to shorter maturities. Bonds had previously gained as inflation data boosted expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. U.S. consumer sentiment declined less than initially estimated, with hopes that inflationary pressures will moderate.

The Fed’s preferred measure of underlying U.S. inflation decelerated, and household spending rebounded while incomes showed solid growth, offering some hope that price pressures can be tamed without lasting damage to consumers.

Despite the shortened holiday trading week, the market is keenly awaiting the latest round of jobs data, including the unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll numbers for June, set to be released on Friday.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar continued to strengthen against the Japanese Yen, reaching an all-time high above 161, raising questions about what actions, if any, the Bank of Japan can take to support their currency.

Download Market Snapshot July 1, 2024

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