Weekly Client Letter – January 6, 2025

As we close out 2024 and step into 2025, many investors are asking what kind of year lies ahead. With the S&P 500 delivering over 20% returns for the second consecutive year, history suggests caution may be prudent.

Past instances of back-to-back 20%+ years have often been followed by sharp drawdowns, averaging over 20%, as highlighted in the accompanying chart.

While history doesn’t guarantee the future, it reminds us that markets can shift quickly. This is why we take a RiskFirst® approach to navigate potential volatility while preserving long-term opportunities.

Third Time’s the Harm

Max Drawdown in Year Following Two Consecutive Years of 20% + Market Gains

Weekly Client Letter - January 6, 2025
Sources: Bloomberg, Redwood. As of 12/31/2024. Date Range 1930 – 2024.
  • We believe the preservation of capital is key to consistent, long-term investment success.
  • Our investment approach is grounded in economic theory and backed by quantitative analysis.
  • Managing drawdown risk is a pillar from which we build our portfolios.

60-Second Breakdown: January 6, 2025

Redwood Senior Analyst Michael C. Sasaki, CFA® discusses recent market performance and explains this week’s chart.

Best Invest Advise EVER!

Bryan Bourgeois, CEO/Founder of Shorebreak Capital, discusses why 90% of investors fail and how to avoid these common investment mistakes with Conner Small, Partner at Redwood Investment Management, Shorebreak Capital’s dedicated asset manager.

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