Weekly Client Letter

Market pullbacks can feel uneasy, but history offers perspective. So far, 2025 has followed a similar path to 1998-early-year volatility followed by recovery. In 1998, the market dropped nearly 20% before rebounding to end the year up over 25%. While no outcome is certain, past trends remind us that short-term dips don’t have to derail […]

Ten years ago, U.S. stocks were cheaper than European ones. But over the last decade, strong U.S. growth helped American markets pull far ahead. That’s starting to shift-European stocks just saw their biggest performance edge over the U.S. since 2007, outperforming by over 10%. Even after that, U.S. shares still look more expensive, trading at

Market volatility can be unsettling at any stage-experts consider the five years before and after retirement the most vulnerable period for retirees. This vulnerability is known as “sequence of return risk”, which occurs when large market losses hit early in retirement, potentially reducing a portfolio’s ability to recover and increasing the risk of outliving your

Market corrections happen for many reasons, but their depth often depends on the broader economic backdrop. Over the past 50 years, when the S&P 500 declined by at least 10% without a recession, losses averaged around 16%. However, when corrections occurred alongside a recession, the market typically fell nearly 40%. While it’s unclear how the

The S&P 500 has fallen below its 200-day moving average-a level closely watched as a potential turning point for market momentum. While this pullback has brought the index near correction territory, it’s important to remember that 10% drawdowns are common in most years, even in strong uptrends. Similar breakdowns have sometimes led to deeper declines,

Unsurprisingly, markets have shown more volatility in 2025 after back-to-back years of 20%+ returns. The S&P 500 has already fallen more than 5% from its all-time high amid concerns over economic growth, inflation, and tariffs. While a deeper sell-off is possible, history suggests that in over 65% of cases, the market fully recovers without going

The seven largest tech giants in the S&P 500, known as the “Magnificent Seven,” have been a major force behind the market’s gains in recent years. However, this year tells a different story, with the group down 14% and entering a correction, underperforming the broader market. This reversal serves as a reminder that higher upside

With tariffs and trade policy back in the headlines under a new Trump administration, it’s worth revisiting what happened in 2018-2019. During President Trump’s first term, the last trade war cycle brought significant volatility, with markets nearly falling into a bear market after the first escalation. Each new tariff announcement triggered sharp swings, and after

International stocks are off to their strongest start in a decade, outperforming the S&P 500 in early 2025 as investors seize on valuation gaps and fresh catalysts. This rotation underscores the importance of global diversification, ensuring portfolios are positioned to capture opportunities beyond domestic markets. Avoiding home-country bias remains key to long-term portfolio resilience and

The rising U.S. budget deficit has become a major concern, with 2024 alone seeing a $2 trillion increase. This gap must be funded either by cutting spending, raising revenue, or borrowing more – resulting in a surge of new Treasury debt. If borrowing continues to outpace economic growth, we could face higher interest rates, which