Weekly Client Letter

In recent times, the surge in market performance has sparked a familiar wave of FOMO-fear of missing out-among investors, compelling many to rethink their strategies in pursuit of higher gains. Historical patterns reveal a tendency for households to shift significantly towards equity securities during these bullish phases, often driven by the allure of immediate returns. […]

Stretched Valuations Warrant Caution Price / Earnings of the S&P 500 Index has not been this stretched pre-pandemic in over 20 years. Dividend Yields are also at secular lows. These traditional measures of valuation indicate that caution is warranted. Watch our Intro Video! Learn a better way to invest:

Cash Returns Almost as Much as Bonds Over Decade Investors have been better off staying in T-Bills for the past one, three, and five-year periods. Most of the underperformance began in 2022 when the Federal Reserve began aggressive rate increases. This dramatic reality in public fixed-income is why we have made the adaptations in our

In finance, the “Moving Day Average” averages the prices of a security over a certain number of days (like 10, 50, or most commonly, 200 days) and this helps people see the overall trend of the market. Yet the market, namely the S&P 500 Index, has seen a significant uptick recently, climbing notably above its

“Fat Tail Risks” refers to the rare chance of experiencing extremely large losses, far beyond what is normally expected in the market. When we look at how many 20% pullbacks occurred in the S&P 500 Index throughout the years, we can see that it happens around 0.35 times per year. This translates to at least

The S&P 500 has surpassed its previous all-time high, and our fully invested models have successfully capitalized on this rally. As we have seen, historical trends in the S&P 500 have shown significant drawdowns exceeding 50%. Our RiskFirst® process is designed to be mindful of these patterns, with the goal of managing downside risk to

Investment-Grade Aggregate Bonds are still fighting to find their footing in the recovery process. They’re hitting a wall that’s stopping them from bouncing back completely. This obstacle is dragging out their slump, setting records with each passing day, now at 1,280 days. For years, these bonds have been a staple in the “core bond” portfolios

While most asset classes had significant moves down in 2022 and violent moves up in 2023, private debt was largely uncorrelated to the broad market. Including private debt into a core fixed-income asset allocation is looking less like an option and more like a necessity. Utilizing Our RiskFirst® process, we incorporated private debt into our

As we analyze the historical performance across different sectors within the S&P 500, a prominent trend emerges: the technology sector has significantly outperformed others. This sector, unlike most, has not only surpassed its 2021 performance level but has done so by a considerable margin. Other sectors have shown more modest growth, making the disparity in

Treasury bond yields are the interest rates the government pays on its debt, varying with the term of the loan, from short to long durations. Typically, longer-term bonds, like the 30-Year ones, offer higher interest rates than shorter-term bonds, such as the 2-Year ones. This is expected, as investors demand higher returns for lending money